2:09 AM
khmerboyboy
In the 80 BN candidate who wins is the 15 won by the MCA, one by the movement and two by the MIC. In other words peninsula just UMNO won 62 seats to 70 seats and if the mix with chairs UMNO / BN won Sabah.
If UMNO can maintain all the seats contested in the West it means that Umno has only 62 seats apart from the addition of eight seats in Sabah (if won).
If the party lost 11 seats in the West as in has been input by many in the West only the BN won 67 seats in total. BN is thus forced to make Sabah and Sarawak as a focus for sufficient seats to form a government with a simple majority of 112 seats.
If on the basis of the BN's victory of 67 seats in the peninsula, then the BN should be looking for win 55 seats in Sabah and Sarawak to obtain an easy victory in Parliament.
But in Sabah and Sarawak is the sum of all the parliamentary seats, 26 in Sarawak and 25 in Sabah and the number of all in the two East Malaysian states are only 51 seats.
If the BN won all seats in both the state already, it will not achieve the goal of establishing a simple government in the Federation. The question now is how much can the BN won all 56 parliamentary seats in Sabah and Sarawak, while the DAP is expanding its influence in Sarawak especially in areas Bumiputra Sarawak.
The party has' advantage is great because the party is the party's multi-meaningless things which may consist of any tribe shall include the Iban, Dayak and others. In Sarawak state elections recently we have seen the victory of DAP in the 12 state seats in urban areas there.
Many argue that the coalition would lose eight seats in Sarawak and Sabah da seven parliamentary seats. But both the state BN only managed to win 41 seats from 56 in all.
If 67 BN in Peninsular (including the MCA) in the mix with 41 seats in Sabah and Sarawak, the BN would have won only 108 seats in total and we do not see how the BN can trust will be able to form a government even with "simple majority".
In whatever arrangements we have to put figures to kontijensi. 67 seats will be won by the merged BN should have kontijensinya percentage. We do not know yet what happened to the BN candidate in the parliamentary elections this game.
In our earlier estimates did not enter the possibility of Pasir Mas which will be returned to the PAS is now in the sling by Ibrahim Ali. Ibrahim Ali had won the seat on the symbol as if Ibrahim Ali PAS running on an independent ticket history has proved that Abraham had lost their deposits in the 2004 election first. Pasir Mas is said to have fallen hands of PAS.
Many within the party states that Tengku Razaleigh will not be passed by the UMNO this time as a candidate. If this news is true then the Gua Musang also fell to PAS. If Pasir Mas and Gua Musang, Jeli fell to PAS but also to fall thus are not going to any victory in Kelantan.
If this happens then the 67 BN in Peninsular above will fall to 64 only. I had the opportunity to discuss with the leaders of UMNO in the state lately.
UMNO Terengganu will not be able to win at least three major parliamentary seat for the turmoil in UMNO in the state if this news is true then the number of seats in Peninsular BN will fall further to 61 seats only.
Posted in: daily news
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